Ep.6: From Jihad to Politics — Jerome Drevon on How HTS Took Syria

Jerome Drevon — Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group; Author of From Jihad to Politics

“For him to meet an American president — yes, that was clearly inconceivable up to some time ago, to think that an American president would accept to meet somebody who was ultimately leading the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria.”

In December 2024, the world watched, stunned, as 50 years of Assad family rule in Syria collapsed in a matter of days. The group that marched into Damascus was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — an organization with jihadi roots that now finds itself the de facto power in a fractured nation. How does a militant group transform into a government? What makes one organization evolve while another, like ISIS, remains committed to a path of self-destruction?

I sat down with Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and author of the prescient book From Jihad to Politics. Jerome had been on the ground in Syria, tracking the evolution of HTS for years, interviewing its fighters and even its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is now Syria’s interim president. In our conversation, he reveals the surprising organizational dynamics that explain this unprecedented shift from insurgency to governance — and why their success was rooted in a concept that has nothing to do with ideology.

Key Insights

The Real Engine of Change: Why focusing on a jihadi group’s ideology is often a mistake — and what organizational factors are far more predictive of their future.

The “Jihadi Paradox”: How the very transnational connections that make these groups militarily successful are often the biggest obstacle to achieving ultimate political victory.

Survival of the Organized: The crucial difference between simple “centralization” and deep “institutionalization” — and why it allows a group to survive even after its founding leaders are killed.

From Fighting to Ruling: Why governing is a two-way street, and how the Syrian population began to “impose its views back on the group more than the other way around.”

A New Generation of Leaders: An inside look at HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa — who Jerome describes as more of a decisive commander than a deep thinker, and why that trait has been critical to his success.