Ep.5: Preparing for the Next War — Mateusz Mielczarek on Poland’s Military Transformation

Mateusz Mielczarek — Chief Strategy Officer, Community of Democracies; Research Assistant, Department of War Studies, King’s College London

“We try to prepare for the next wars rather than the past one.”

As the center of gravity in Europe shifts eastward, one nation is rapidly transforming into a military powerhouse on NATO’s eastern flank: Poland. Driven by a tragic history and an acute sense of the threat posed by an aggressive Russia, Poland has embarked on an unprecedented military modernization program. But this is not just about buying tanks and planes; it’s a holistic national effort to build resilience against every form of modern warfare.

I sat down with Mateusz Mielczarek, the chief strategy officer at the permanent secretariat of the Community of Democracies and a research assistant at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. With deep expertise in hybrid threats and deterrence concerning NATO and Russia, Mateusz provides a critical look into Poland’s strategy — and why the future of European security may depend on a “more Polish Europe.”

Key Takeaways

A “Final Warning”: While Poland has always understood the risks posed by Russia, the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a “shocking moment” and a “call to action” that prompted the country to massively accelerate its defense spending to over 4% of GDP.

Building a Self-Reliant Defense Industry: Poland’s strategy focuses heavily on boosting its domestic defense industry. The goal is to reduce reliance on external partners, learning a hard lesson from Ukraine’s challenges in receiving aid during a full-scale conflict. The state-owned defense group PGZ is investing over $663 million to increase ammunition production.

Fighting the Hybrid War: The threat isn’t just a potential invasion. Mateusz details the ongoing hybrid warfare Russia is conducting — from “shadow fleet” operations targeting undersea cables to instigating fires and sabotage within NATO countries.

The Importance of Societal Resilience: Beyond military hardware, Poland is cultivating national readiness. Many Polish citizens are voluntarily attending military trainings, from weekend courses to joining territorial brigades, preparing to cope with any crisis.

From Economic Underdog to Powerhouse: In a single generation, Poland’s economy has transformed from the level of Iran to that of Japan in terms of GDP. Mateusz argues this incredible growth is fueled by a “strong attachment to freedom,” which underpins the country’s resolve.