Ep.3: There Is No Strategy — Damon Golriz on Iran, the Strikes & What Comes Next

Damon Golriz — Strategic Iran Analyst, The Hague Institute for Geopolitics

“There Is No Strategy, There Is No Plan”

The world woke up to the surreal news of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, leaving everyone asking: What happens now? What is the strategy, what is the end goal, and how will the Iranian regime respond? I sat down with Damon Golriz, a strategic Iran analyst for the Hague Institute for Geopolitics who knows the Islamic Republic intimately, having fled as a political refugee in his childhood. In our conversation, he reveals that the explanation for this world-altering event may be far simpler and more banal than any grand geopolitical strategy.

Key Insights

The “Political Seduction” Behind the Attacks: Damon argues there is no real strategy behind the strikes. Instead, he describes it as the result of “the greatest political seduction of our time” — orchestrated by Netanyahu to serve Trump’s personal and political needs.

Why Bombing Nuclear Sites Isn’t Enough: You can destroy buildings, but you can’t bomb knowledge and know-how. Damon explains why Iran could still build its first bomb in as little as 15 days in a space the size of a garage, even after these attacks.

The Three Pillars of the Regime: To understand Iran’s next move, you have to understand the three pillars that have sustained the regime since 1979 — its Islamic identity, its anti-Western stance, and its anti-Semitic/anti-Israel sentiment. These pillars make surrender an almost impossible option.

Why a Coup Isn’t So Simple: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not a traditional army. Its decentralized structure, with generals involved in everything from the black market to telecom, means a simple decapitation of leadership won’t work and could lead to chaos and internal violence.

A Surprising Role for Europe: Damon proposes that the most effective thing European nations can do now is invest in Iranian dissidents and the diaspora to help cultivate an inclusive, political alternative for the country’s future from the inside out.