“The gist of those two essays you mentioned is that I believe that civil war is coming to the West. In fact, I think we’re past the tipping point and you can see instances of it already.”
Civil war is no longer a thought experiment reserved for far‑off, “hot and dusty” places; it is, in David Betz’s view, a looming domestic reality for the West that has already passed its tipping point.
As legitimacy frays, expectations crumble and factional identities harden, ordinary citizens find themselves living inside the prelude to a conflict their institutions still refuse to name. In this episode of Hunter’s War, Professor David Betz of King’s College London lays out why he thinks the West is drifting toward internal rupture, and what can still be done to limit the damage.
The new insurgency at home
For decades, Western governments have treated insurgency as something that happens elsewhere – a pathology of “other” societies that could be managed with doctrine, development funds, and limited deployments. Yet, as Betz stresses, insurgency is not an exotic aberration but a variant of a social movement that emerges when enough people conclude that meaningful change is no longer possible within the existing rules of the game.
Insurgencies, he argues, begin with political ambitions wildly out of proportion to material capacity – big ideas held by actors with almost no resources – and revolve around redressing that imbalance. They draw on the same toolkit as ordinary social movements (mobilisation, narrative framing, organisational networks), but cross a crucial line: they deliberately go beyond the law once the belief takes hold that lawful avenues are blocked.
Inside this framework, terrorism appears not as a separate phenomenon but as a tactic whose primary purpose is to provoke the state into an overreaction that erodes its legitimacy. Modern media only deepen this effect, turning local acts into global theatre and magnifying every misstep by governments that lash out in fear.
The core warning: civil war comes West
The central theme of the conversation is Betz’s stark claim: civil war is coming to the West and, in important ways, has already begun to incubate within its political and social systems. Drawing on his study of foreign conflicts, he sketches six conditions that signal a growing propensity for internal war – and shows how each now appears in Western societies, particularly in Europe.
First comes polar factionalism, where people no longer simply disagree over issues but suppress personal views in favour of what they perceive to be their faction’s line, driven by fear and the need for allies. In this environment, identity trumps argument, and politics becomes a zero‑sum tribal contest. Betz points to the rise of openly factional parties, such as explicitly communal representatives in parts of the UK, as one symptom of that shift.
Second is downgrading: the sense among a dominant but declining majority that it is facing permanent loss of status – over language, holidays, legal norms, cultural reference points – and that time is running out to arrest the slide. Academic literature uses the term “downgrading,” but in public discourse it surfaces as “great replacement” anxiety – a narrative which, Betz notes, has moved from fringe to mainstream sentiment in Britain and beyond.
Third is the collapse of legitimacy, evident in record levels of mistrust, the widespread belief that “voting doesn’t matter,” and decades of broken promises on issues such as migration. When governments of both left and right repeatedly pledge to “manage” flows but preside over sustained high net migration and scandals such as the UK’s grooming‑gang cases, citizens begin to experience not just disappointment but betrayal.
From there, Betz moves to the supposed mitigating factors that once made civil war in the West feel unthinkable: wealth, a culture of obedience, and a competent, unified elite. He argues that all three are eroding at the same time. Economic growth has stalled, debt has exploded, younger generations are locked out of asset ownership, and the expectation gap between what people were told to expect and what they actually receive widens year by year. The “culture of obedience” that once characterised countries like Britain is strained by deliberate demographic and cultural transformation, while elites show themselves less capable, less cohesive, and increasingly prone to defection or quiet sabotage.
War’s shadow over ordinary lives
If Betz is correct that the West cannot avoid some form of internal rupture, the question shifts from prevention to mitigation. He suggests that the real task now is to shorten the duration of conflict, protect what can be protected, and think clearly – before the shooting starts – about what must be preserved for any post‑war society to function.
“If you're going to have the rupture, quite honestly, I think you want it to happen fast and get it over with and not drag it out.”
For soldiers and security professionals, this implies a reframing of their role: not just as tactical actors, but as stewards of cultural continuity and public safety under extreme stress. Betz urges Western militaries to learn from UNESCO guidance and past conflicts by cataloguing and planning to protect key cultural artefacts, monuments, archives and sites that are highly vulnerable to iconoclastic violence in civil wars.
For policymakers, his recommendations are quietly radical. They include pre‑conflict planning for safe zones and sanctuaries that can reduce destructive refugee flows, preserve critical skills, and provide islands of governance when other structures fail. They also demand a hard look at the internal security of nuclear weapons, fissile material, advanced biological facilities and other dual‑use technologies, using the cooperative threat‑reduction mindset once applied to the collapsing Soviet Union – but turned inward.
And for civilians, there is a sobering moral and political challenge: to look squarely at migration, social capital, factionalism and elite behaviour without euphemism, and to recover some space for honest speech before conflicts of perception harden into conflicts of arms. Betz himself is pessimistic about the possibility of “talking our way out,” yet the conversation underscores that any hope of limiting the damage begins with naming what is actually happening.
Some Topics We Cover Why terrorism in modern insurgency is less about fear itself and more about provoking the state into an overreaction that destroys its own legitimacy – and why Western governments keep falling for the trap.
How “third‑party” counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan was almost doomed from the start, and why Betz believes true counterinsurgency is nearly impossible for Western powers in the 21st century.
The criteria Betz uses to assess a society’s civil‑war risk – including polar factionalism and downgrading – and how disturbingly well Western societies now fit the pattern.
The three mitigation priorities Betz would put on a national security planner’s desk tomorrow if they accepted that civil conflict at home is no longer a taboo scenario.
Guest intel & resources
Professor David Betz is a Professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where he has spent over two decades studying insurgency, counterinsurgency, information operations, and the changing character of war. His recent essays on the prospect of civil war in the West argue that long‑term trends in legitimacy, migration, and elite behaviour are converging toward internal conflict in Western societies.
Taken together, Betz’s argument is not that Western societies are uniquely doomed, but that they have quietly reproduced the same conditions that have driven civil wars elsewhere. The result is a dangerous gap between how our politics talks about risk and how our societies are actually evolving under the surface. If you accept, even as a thought experiment, that internal conflict in the West is now thinkable, what do you think we can do about it? To hear the full argument, the indicators in detail, and Betz’s uncomfortable recommendations for planners and citizens alike, listen to the complete Hunter’s War episode with Professor David Betz
Ep.7: Michelle Haas
Security Analyst, NATO and European Defence policy @ UGent and The Egmont Institute.
We all feel the uncertainty hanging over Europe. Will the US maintain its security commitment? Is Europe truly prepared for the evolving Russian threat?
It's easy to feel overwhelmed by the alarmist headlines and political ping-pong. I sat down with Michelle Haas, a PhD researcher at the University of Ghent focusing on NATO and European defense, a fellow at the Egmont Institute, and a reservist in the Special Forces. Michelle breaks down the most critical issues facing the continent.
In this conversation, we discuss state of the transatlantic security relationship and what European nations, especially those in the West, can learn from the strategic clarity and "whole-of-society" approach of the Baltics and Nordics.
Ep. 6:Jerome Drevon
Senior Analyst Internation Crisis Group and author of "From Jihad to Politics"
“For him to meet an American president, yes, that was clearly inconceivable up to some time ago, to think that an American president would accept to meet somebody who was ultimately leading the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria.”
In December 2024, the world watched, stunned, as 50 years of Assad family rule in Syria collapsed in a matter of days. The group that marched into Damascus was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an organization with jihadi roots that now finds itself the de facto power in a fractured nation. How does a militant group transform into a government? What makes one organization evolve while another, like ISIS, remains committed to a path of self-destruction?
I sat down with Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and author of the prescient book,
From Jihad to Politics. Jerome had been on the ground in Syria, tracking the evolution of HTS for years, interviewing its fighters and even its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is now Syria’s interim president. In our conversation, he reveals the surprising organizational dynamics that explain this unprecedented shift from insurgency to governance, showing why their success was rooted in a concept that has nothing to do with ideology.
This conversation peels back the headlines to reveal the complex reality of how militant groups operate, evolve, and govern. Here are a few of the key insights Jerome shared:
The real engine of change: Why focusing on a jihadi group's ideology is often a mistake and what organizational factors are far more predictive of their future.
The "Jihadi Paradox": Discover how the very transnational connections that make these groups militarily successful are often the biggest obstacle to achieving ultimate political victory.
Survival of the organized: Learn the crucial difference between simple "centralization" and deep "institutionalization" that allows a group to survive even after its founding leaders are killed.
From fighting to ruling: Why governing is a two-way street, and how the Syrian population began to "impose its views back on the group more than the other way around".
A new generation of leaders: An inside look at HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who Jerome describes as more of a decisive commander than a deep thinker, and why that trait has been critical to his success.
Ep. 5: Mateusz Mielczarek
Chief Strategy Officer of the Community of Democracies in Poland
“We try to prepare for the next wars rather than the past one.”
As the center of gravity in Europe shifts eastward, one nation is rapidly transforming into a military powerhouse on NATO's eastern flank: Poland. Driven by a tragic history and an acute sense of the threat posed by an aggressive Russia, Poland has embarked on an unprecedented military modernization program. But this is not just about buying tanks and planes; it's a holistic national effort to build resilience against every form of modern warfare.
To understand this transformation, I sat down with Mateusz Mielczarek, the chief strategy officer at the permanent secretariat of the Community of Democracies and a research assistant at the Department of War Studies at King's College London. With deep expertise in hybrid threats and deterrence concerning NATO and Russia, Mateusz provides a critical look into Poland’s strategy. In our conversation, he revealed how Poland is learning from the war in Ukraine to prepare for the next war, not the last one, and why the future of European security may depend on a "more Polish Europe"
Key Takeaways from the conversation:
A "Final Warning": While Poland has always understood the risks posed by Russia, the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a "shocking moment" and a "call to action" that prompted the country to massively accelerate its defense spending to over 4% of GDP.
Building a Self-Reliant Defense Industry: Poland's strategy focuses heavily on boosting its domestic defense industry. The goal is to reduce reliance on external partners, learning a hard lesson from Ukraine's challenges in receiving aid during a full-scale conflict. The state-owned defense group, PGZ, is investing over $663 million to increase ammunition production on the ground.
Fighting the Hybrid War: The threat isn't just a potential invasion. Mateusz details the ongoing hybrid warfare Russia is conducting, from "shadow fleet" operations targeting undersea cables to instigating fires and sabotage within NATO countries.
The Importance of Societal Resilience: Beyond military hardware, Poland is cultivating national readiness. A promising sign is that many Polish citizens are voluntarily attending military trainings, from weekend courses to joining territorial brigades, preparing to cope with any crisis.
From Economic Underdog to Powerhouse: In a single generation, Poland's economy has transformed from the level of Iran to that of Japan in terms of GDP. Mateusz argues this incredible growth is fueled by a "strong attachment to freedom," which underpins the country's resolve.
Ep. 4: Inès Abdel Razek
Co-Director of the Palestine Institute for Public Diplomacy
“The Obstacles to Our Liberation are International”
While headlines focus on state-level conflicts, the real levers of power and change often lie elsewhere. When official diplomatic channels fail and international institutions lose their credibility, where do people turn for justice and liberation?
I sat down with Ines Abdelrazek, the co-director of the Palestine Institute for Public Diplomacy (PIPD), to discuss the deep-rooted challenges facing the Palestinian people. In our conversation, she dismantled the common narratives surrounding the conflict and revealed how decades of Israeli colonial policy have intentionally fragmented Palestinian society. She provides a powerful argument for why the international community's complicity is the single biggest obstacle to peace and what must be done to change it.
In this episode, you’ll discover the core strategy of fragmentation Israel has used for over 77 years to control the Palestinian people, creating vastly different realities from Gaza to the West Bank to the diaspora.
Why the institutions created to represent Palestinians, like the PLO and the Palestinian Authority, are no longer seen as legitimate by many of the people they claim to serve.
The rise of "people's diplomacy" and how civil society, grassroots groups, and international alliances are filling the political vacuum left by traditional leadership.
How international complicity, from US military aid to Colombian coal exports, directly fuels the Israeli colonial project and the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
Why the recent push by European countries to recognize a Palestinian state might be a counterproductive distraction that shields Israel from accountability.
How the digital world has become a double-edged sword: a crucial tool for amplifying Palestinian voices and a weapon of surveillance, censorship, and repression.
Powerful Words: "The only people who can liberate ourselves are the Palestinians. But the obstacles to that are international."
"What we're asking for is can we decide for ourselves? can you let us liberate ourselves? Can you let us build a free country?"
"Recognizing Palestine is not going to end your complicity. If you continue to send allow the shipment of weapons to Israel, like France does... and then you talk about recognizing, that's hypocrisy."
"The EU has completely lost credibility with its double standards when it comes to applying rules, international law, rules of engagements or any order."
Ep.3: Damon Golriz
Strategic Iran Analyst at the Hague Institute for Geopolitics
“There Is No Strategy, There Is No Plan”
The world woke up to the surreal news of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, leaving everyone asking: What happens now? What is the strategy, what is the end goal, and how will the Iranian regime respond? I sat down with Damone Golriz, a strategic Iran analyst for the Hague Institute for Geopolitics who knows the Islamic Republic intimately, having fled as a political refugee in his childhood. In our conversation, he reveals that the explanation for this world-altering event may be far simpler and more banal than any grand geopolitical strategy.
Here are some of the key insights Damone shared:
The "Political Seduction" Behind the Attacks: Damone argues there is no real strategy behind the strikes. Instead, he describes it as the result of "the greatest political seduction of our time" orchestrated by Netanyahu to serve Trump's personal and political needs
Why Bombing Nuclear Sites Isn't Enough: You can destroy buildings, but you can't bomb knowledge and know-how. Damone explains why Iran could still build its first bomb in as little as 15 days in a space the size of a garage, even after these attacks.
The Three Pillars of the Regime: To understand Iran's next move, you have to understand the three pillars that have sustained the regime since 1979: its Islamic identity, its anti-Western stance, and its anti-Semitic/anti-Israel sentiment. These pillars make surrender an almost impossible option.
Why a Coup Isn't So Simple: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not a traditional army. Its decentralized structure, with generals involved in everything from the black market to telecom, means a simple decapitation of leadership won't work and could lead to chaos and internal violence.
A Surprising Role for Europe: Damone proposes that the most effective thing European nations can do now is invest in Iranian dissidents and the diaspora to help cultivate an inclusive, political alternative for the country's future from the inside out.
Ep. 2: Grant Ennis
Author of ‘Dark PR:How Corporate Disinformation Undermines Our Health and the Environment”
“We must make the world a better place, not feel as though we are making the world a better place.”
Many of us have spent years, even our whole lives, trying to make the world a better place. We diligently recycle, calculate our carbon footprints, and choose ethically sourced products, believing that our individual actions will add up to create a massive impact.
But what if that entire premise is a lie?
I sat down with Grant Ennis, a public health scholar, author, and veteran of aid work in post and current conflict zones like Iraq and Syria. We discuss his eye-opening book, "Dark PR: How Corporate Misinformation Undermines Our Health and the Environment", to expose the playbook corporations use to keep us focused on our personal choices while they profit from government-subsidized catastrophes. In our conversation, Grant revealed the shocking truth behind concepts like the "carbon footprint" and why our best intentions are often misdirected, ineffective, and even harmful.
This conversation is an uncomfortable but essential listen for anyone who wants to move beyond feeling like they're making a difference to actually making one.
Key Takeaways:
The Shocking Origin of the "Carbon Footprint": Learn how British Petroleum (BP) took a term from obscure academic journals and spent millions popularizing it to shift the blame for global warming onto individuals.
Why Individual Action Backfires: Grant presents evidence showing that the more we focus on individual actions (like reading food labels or "leaning in"), the less likely we are to support the large-scale political policies that create real change.
The 9 Devious Frames of "Dark PR": Discover the corporate playbook used to protect profitable catastrophes, from "post-denialism" (claiming what's bad is good for you) to "multifactorialism" (making problems seem too complex to solve).
Aggregate vs. Collective Action: Understand the critical difference between millions of people making small, separate choices and citizens organizing for collective political action—and why only one of them has ever changed the world.
The Politics of Urban Sprawl: Grant connects government-mandated low-density housing to not only more car crashes and pollution but also to the erosion of our ability to organize politically.
Ep.1: Rudi Vranckx
Belgian War Journalist VRT and Documentary Maker
“It’s a slow war of attrition to find the truth for society, for history. It’s a slow war of attrition. Be prepared.”
We live in a deeply unstable time. The old world order has vanished, and a new one has yet to be born. Many of us feel a sense of fatigue and helplessness watching conflicts unfold, wondering if there's anything we can do as individuals to push back against the tide of chaos and disinformation. What if the key to navigating our turbulent present lies in understanding the past?
I sat down with Rudi Vranckx, a highly respected Belgian war reporter and historian who has spent decades on the front lines of history. He argues that we are living in what the historian Gramsci called a time of monsters —a dangerous, fascinating period between two worlds. In our conversation, Rudi reveals why looking back is the only way to move forward and shares where he finds hope, even when it seems all is lost.
This conversation is about making sense of our complex world. Here are just a few of the key takeaways you'll learn from Rudi Vranckx:
Why History is Never Gone: Rudi explains how conflicts from the Cold War to post-colonial wars in the Congo are still shaping today's headlines, and why generations who forget the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat them.
Finding Your "Moral Compass": In an age of disinformation , Rudi makes a powerful case for human rights as the one absolute value that can guide us through the moral maze of modern conflict.
The Power of the People: Learn why grassroots movements and a strong civil society are the only true forces capable of creating lasting change, from ending apartheid in South Africa to pushing back against corrupt leaders today.
Why an Arms Race Isn't the Answer: Rudi argues that true security isn't just about tanks and guns. He explains why investing in "soft power"—like independent media and cultural exchange—is a more effective way to defend our values and prevent war.
Hunter's War 